Vote projections.

For those that care to follow such things, there are two electoral vote projection sites I tend to follow.

The first is These guys have a bit of mathamancy going on, but their overall process is relatively sound: it weights more historically reliable polling organizations more than the less reliable, and they factor in older polls as well. This forces a state’s polls to look at the trend and should, in theory, help even out outlier polls.

The other is the more even tempered This one is more focused on current polls and tends to be more conservative (not in the right wing sense) in its projections.

Both are already showing Obama closing in on what I’d think of as Landslide territory, but it’s worth pointing out that there are two factors that polls won’t take into account.

One is undercover racism. People who tell pollsters they’ll vote for Obama may do differently in the confines of the polling both. Jesse Jackson used to like to tell a tale from when he was running once of a guy who walked up to him and apologized. He’d supported Jesse all along, but when he was in the booth he just couldn’t bring himself to pull that handle.

The other is that polls don’t call cell phones… but a significant percentage of younger voters, who tend to lean towards Obama, use cells exclusively. Hell, I do. There’s no way right now to account for the effect of either of these things.

Just FYI.